This is a critical juncture for the global economy in the face of a number of parallel and often related crises. The polycrisis upon us includes the legacy of covid, war in Europe, an energy shock, high and persistent inflation, a global monetary tightening cycle, a strong US dollar, China’s reopening and global indebtedness—to name a few. This is to say nothing of the turmoil playing out in financial markets as the decades-long negative correlation between bonds and stocks has reversed so both are tanking simultaneously. As years of cheap money come to an end and the tide of liquidity goes back out, we are starting to discover who is swimming naked. Global debt to GDP exceeds 300%, but countries are going to have to spend a lot more money to address the polycrisis. In doing so, they will be working against central banks, which will continue to withdraw accommodation in an effort to lean against inflation. Will fiscal and monetary authorities manage to navigate this without causing a global recession? What will a likely recession look like? And what will the global economy look like when the dust has finally settled on the pandemic and war?
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